July Rant (TYL)

July Rant (TYL)

There’s an unwritten, iron-clad law of politics that goes like this –


You step too far from the status quo… and you risk your neck.


Now, we’re talking politics here, so it doesn’t hold for the guy you knew in high school, who showed up occasionally to class with a cape.  He was eccentric.  Okay.  He was looking for girls.  Fine.  People called him goofy.  But no one was going to kill him.


In the political arena, it’s different.  There, assassination comes quickly to those who favor the bold.


No one wants the bold.


And anyone who dares step out of line to upend the apple cart, where the fruit are arranged just so, and everyone can see and has gotten used to them, is dealt with in the manner of all apple topplers.


He, too, gets upended.


And it doesn’t matter that the fruit is rotten or worm-infested or even slightly aglow.  All that matters is that the masses are used to it, and “that’s the way it’s always been, so leave it alone.”


A nation that kills its revolutionaries is a nation that doesn’t have a lot of time left.


As Thomas Jefferson said:


…God forbid we should ever be 20 years without such a rebellion…. What country ever existed a century and a half without a rebellion? And what country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms…. What significance a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.




We don’t live in democracies anymore, friends, at least insofar as democracies are meant to send individuals to ‘represent’ and ‘serve’ the people.  That doesn’t exist today.  Today, we exchange our leadership every four years via the ballot, but the source of power and change no longer resides with those who cast votes.  Rather, it’s found in the corridors of a massive, unelected bureaucratic apparatus that exists solely to aggregate to itself ever greater powers and to be accountable to no one.


And everyone is happy with the arrangement, apparently, save for those pesky mites who still believe in outdated civic notions, like… well, democracy.  Who pay attention to details of history like the constitution.  And who cherish something that was once taken for granted – another arcane and antiquated notion: personal liberty.


Today, one dare not own a cat, let alone educate one’s children as one wishes, without the appropriate forms and fees filed, fingerprints and face scans taken, and blood and urine samples bottled for all relevant government agencies.


We’ve given over all the daily details and decisions in our public, and in many cases private, lives to a bureaucratic apparatus that finds no end to the number of regulations and ordinances and protocols they can foist upon us, and all in the interest of some make-believe notion of ‘public order’ that’s really more akin to slavery than freedom.


You Call that Democracy?


Until the revolutionary comes along.


When the revolutionary calls into question all the nonsense we’ve come to take for granted and suggests we do away with it and restore to our lives a state of maximal personal autonomy, then his days become the target of those who support the status quo.


Make no mistake: there’s a profound interest on the part of a massive bureaucratic establishment that wields authority and power without any accountability to the people whose lives it restricts and harasses in countless ways, to preserve itself at all costs.  And if need be, it will resort to an all out program of violence and repression in order to maintain ‘the public order’ it so cherishes and to ensure that you don’t think twice about promptly paying your annual air conditioner registration and upkeep fee to the appropriate authorities, so as to avoid any late charges (which go to paying for office decorations at the Department of Redundancy Department.


Government is the only institution on the planet that can keep a straight face, look someone in the eye and say, “It’s the first of the month.  You pay.”


The Ides of Summer


July is the hottest month.  The month of revolution.  Don’t be surprised to see the fires of July get people heated up and trigger happy.


And don’t be surprised when the forces of reaction fire back.


Indeed, our July trade is a fiery one, and it’s based on the extraordinarily resilient nature of a stock whose chart we’ll show you below.


This is a company on the reactionary side, an outfit whose root and branch are bureaucracy and nothing but.  It’s a business whose work is to organize and empower the court systems and town halls, the police backrooms and control centers of all the major government agencies and support centers.


The company is called Tyler Technologies (NYSE:TYL), and we’ve highlighted them on these pages before.  They make software for governments to aid the tracking and storing of both public and personal information.  And their stock has behaved in rather contrary fashion of late.


Take a look –


Against the wild plunges and swings of the major market averages this last week, TYL shares did nothing but rise.  Almost 15%!


And that’s phenomenal.


For that reason alone, they stand out as a safe water port on a sea of madness.


And what’s next for this fairest cove on the coast of the bureaucrats?  The chart shows her at the top of a multi-month trend channel, even though RSI and MACD show no signs of being overbought.  And price is also above all her moving averages.


Indeed, save for the trend channel, the stock appears to be as strong as any.


But we want to play it smart.


We like the longer term prospects for the stock, even if the market tumbles here a little – it’s already proven itself, after all, in rough weather.


But we also want to be circumspect with our bullishness, as the trend channel top-out bespeaks a potential near term pullback.


So we’ll play it with a short term short call and a longer term long call – a calendar spread, as they say in the business.  And it goes like this –


- Content protected for Normandy Executive Lounge, Option Trader Elite members only]


Many happy returns,


Matt McAbby

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