Royalty’s Ups and Downs (FNV.WT.A,UNG,GDXJ,NVDA)

A quick digression.   We were quite surprised that CNBC’s political reporter, John Harwood, would risk knowing what Americans really thought about the issue of Russian spies (a truth already clear to us little people) by Tweeting out the following challenge to his followers – In the eyes of the American public, Junior wanted know who was more trustworthy: Wikileaks or the intelligence community.  The above results arrived near the beginning of his campaign, but by the end, well… suffice to say that a funny thing happened on the way to the mainstream media disillusion slap-fest.   WHOOPS!   You can be sure that Mr. Harwood didn’t expect the answer he got, being himself a purveyor of a failed agenda and a life lived completely out of touch with Main Street America.   The final tally on his survey looked like this – And that was that.   We reproduce it here for you, dear reader, to make two very simple points.   First, an encouraging one: that only one in six Americans can be taken for fools.   And second, that with a sample of better than 80,000 participants, you can be fairly certain that a manifest majority of…

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2017 – It’s All Good (UNG,GDXJ)

Does it get any better?   Sure, we may see a short-lived selling wave now that this election nonsense is behind us – a chance for the bigshots to take some profits before year end and try to buy back in at cheaper prices in the New Year.   But it’s still good.   How so?   First, and most importantly, we’ve now begun the final wave up for the bull market that began in 1980, or, if you prefer, in 1932 – there’s no longer any question about it.  The ultimate rocket-shot higher before Kondratieff’s winter finally descends upon us like a Siberian tiger, is here. And the signs are everywhere –   Consider first that the nudnicks over at Gallup, ever questioning people about everything from boxers or briefs to religious affiliations and views on alien invasions, have just recorded their highest ever economic confidence reading – in the history of the survey!   What?  Now!?   You got it.  Now.   Take a look – And in case you thought it was just a flash in the pan, consider a recent CNBC poll whose results mirror those above – The CNBC website accounts for it thus:  …

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Sell Everything! (SPY,GDXJ,GLD,TSLA,GM)

We had a very strong sell day on Friday, and much of the ink that was spilled over the following days was dedicated to convincing us that the blood is only beginning to flow.   But is it really time to break out the cautery?  Grab the gauze box and squeeze the wound?   Time to throw on some cayenne pepper, maybe?   Ho, ho…! MY. GAWD.   Before we get to the answer, consider some arguments in favor of the continued grand selloff hypothesis –   Investor Complacency   Some swear by it, but we don’t see it, frankly.  The AAII numbers that we watch show a very frightened Ma and Pa investing cohort that’s unable to do anything but sit on their thumbs.  The last AAII bullish sentiment readings were 29.75, and the bearish were 28.48.  That means we’re anything but complacent in the traditional sense.  For that to be the case, we’d have to see at least 50 or 60% bulls.  And we don’t.   What we do see is the neutral crowd in the lead by a longshot.  Neutral, by the way, may as well be ‘neutered’ as far as the investment game goes.  Someone who…

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Military Efficiency (LMT,GDXJ,QQQ,GLD,SLV)

A system is put in place to create efficiencies.  That’s its role.  It’s not there to help you find your inner child or to bring out your innate human potential.   It’s about being faster and cheaper and glitch-free.   A criminal justice system therefore attempts to deal with criminals and crime in an ‘efficient’ manner.  An education system aims at ‘efficient’ indoctrination of facts and theories in its students.  A healthcare system desires to kill disease and administer to patients with the utmost proficiency.   And why?   Because that produces savings.  And savings means profits.  And everyone’s happy with profits. So what’s the problem?   The problem arises when the system gets too big, when it moves beyond a genuinely human-scale operation and turns industrial.  At that point, individuals are ‘processed’ through the system and all sense of humanity is lost.  Sure there may be a clerk or teacher or nurse in the building who still has a human touch, but by and large those qualities are weaned from workers, who are themselves extensively trained to work more ‘efficiently’.   On the edges, this means that individual souls are treated with contempt.   Those with learning disabilities or…

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Stock Market Superhero (GDXJ,QQQ)

Welcome, greetings and bienvenue to all you well-muscled, sporty types who love a good, old-fashioned punch-up competition.   Today, we’re announcing our annual, winner-take-all, anti-ISIS stock market predictorama, whereby you offer your best take on the December 31st outcome of all your favorite securities and asset classes, and we, too, take a kick at the can.   Prizes!  Winnings!  Heavenly Delights!   And in keeping with the theme and spirit of the times, the winner of this year’s event will be offered no less than a comely seventy-year-old virgin – and you needn’t blow yourself up to claim her, either!   Just come closer in the final tally than any of your peers, and you travel first class, round trip via Malaysia Airlines to – MOSUL, IRAQ! investment paradise – where you’ll stay at what’s left of the Holiday Inn along with your droopy-skinned honey for a week of artillerous bliss and lead-dodging hijinx, all courtesy of your dearly beloved Baltimorean publishers. Thanks, Larry.   Let’s kick it off with our own humble predictions and then move on to a trade.   On the Last Day of 2016…   You can expect to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average to…

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Gold Gap Zeroes Out (GLD,GDXJ,FCX)

There will be some very interesting developments across the market over the next few days and weeks, and maybe the most important will involve the precious metals.   Why?   Well, to begin, the dollar has now traced a very bullish continuation pattern called an ‘ascending triangle’.  The pattern looks like this – An ascending triangle is always bullish.  It’s an indication that in the battle between bulls and bears, the latter are slowly running out of ammunition, and once their last shots are fired, buying power will overrun them and advance above resistance toward a new high for the move.   And…   The upshot of a pop in the dollar is that it’ll pressure all the commodities, including gold and silver.  Commodities are priced in dollars, so currency gains generally push prices lower.   At the same time, a dollar advance will make U.S. equities a more exciting prospect for foreign investors.  Not only will stocks setting new all-time highs, but with the dollar on the rise, those same investors will have a chance to pocket an additional gain against their local currency.   This is a chart of the Dow Industrials for the last six months –…

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Walking through the Trade (GLD, EPI, TBT, AAPL, GDXJ)

Let’s run down a few trades before we dig into the main course. And we’ll start with this – A long, long time ago, way back in October of 2013, we bet on the long bond falling. We bought the TBT January 80 CALL for $11.00 and sold the January 110 CALL for $4.75 and everything expired out of the money. Loss of $6.25 on the trade. On September 8th we got India in the blood and bought the January 24 EPI CALL for $0.90 while selling the January 21 EPI PUT for $0.30. And we didn’t give it enough time. India is now breaking higher, but we took a loss. We’re out sixty bucks and looking for an auspicious moment to reinstate the trade. On November 10th we express doubt on Gold’s rebound. We sell five GLD December 122 CALLs for $0.48 each, for a total credit of $2.40, and buy one GLD January 106 PUT for $1.43. Total credit on the trade is $0.97 and that’s what we get. All options expire OTM. Profit of $97 per round traded. Finally, on the 24th of November we pair Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) against the junior gold sector, for no other reason…

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Nothing to Bloody Lose! (FB, HYG, GLD, CTB, AAPL, GDXJ, DIA)

Let’s get straight to business with some updates on a whole lot of trades. But before we do, a quick shout-out to good reader Jesper Markenstam, who queried us regarding last week’s Facebook/DJIA initiative. For some reason the strike of the FB CALL was not included in the recommendation at press time, and our efforts to make that known in the talkback section of the website were also unsuccessful. We pray it doesn’t happen again and thank Jesper for his insistence in the matter. As he was keen to discern, it was indeed the FB 70 CALL that we were recommending. BY THE WAY, is it true that Jesper was once a stand-in for Kiss’s Ace Frehley when the latter fell ill with a bout of mono in 1978? [click to listen] Don’t be shy, Jes…   That said, we move now to our October 27th recommendation on the iShares IBoxx Hi Yield Corproate Bond ETF (NYSE:HYG). The letter was called Launch the Dirigibles, and in it we suggested there was money to be had from buying a long-dated HYG CALL and selling a shorter dated PUT for the same price. And we have good news. The PUT expired worthless…

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