Haughty, Haughty Boy! (NUS,NOC,SPY)

Haughty, Haughty Boy! (NUS,NOC,SPY)   Much of the commentary here at Modern Bull over the years has been dedicated to preparing for a bear market – and a potentially devastating one, at that.   It has long been our belief that we’re now witnessing the mother of all bull markets, the final, euphoric blow-off top to an advance that began in the depths of the Great Depression some eight decades ago.   It’s an hypothesis shared by others, though to our credit, there are very few who are willing to stick out their necks and claim – as we do – that we still have one more ‘Old Faithful’ spasm of buying ahead of us, the likes of which has never been experienced by today’s market players. What follows, of course, will not likely be pleasant.  And we’ve been proponents of stocking up now in preparation for what’s liable to come.   Banking on Yourself   We, of course, were the first to introduce the world to the Four Gs Investing regimen – Guns, Gold, Gas and Grub, a catchy and poignant slogan that a number of ill-witted, unimaginative copycats have since gone on to pilfer.   As you’ve come…

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Where The Markets Meet War (SPY,NOC)

bs’d Where The Markets Meet War (SPY,NOC) There are days to be thankful for, friends. And this is one of them. For all that we have (and don’t really deserve), we should bend over backward and thank our tormentors. For all that we want and still haven’t gotten (and really don’t deserve, either), hold on a bit. For in the end, there’s little doubt that the greatest of all Supreme Court Justices will bestow upon us our worldly dessert in the most precise and poignant manner. And may he do so doubly to our enemies! Revenge and the Making of Foes It’s hard to figure where the current round of trade wars will end. There are those who posit that we’re fast-tracking toward a military confrontation with the likes of Russia, China and Iran, and whoever else we might end up feuding with (Canada? Mexico?). And there are those, like the President and his cabinet, who claim that this is simply about protecting American business from an unfair playing field that we, in our unthinking ideological rush for an ill-defined ‘globalism’, created ourselves. It’s now simply a matter of healing those self-inflicted wounds and restoring thereby our former glory. In…

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Tortoise vs. Hare, Avionic Version (BA,NOC,HYG,BIDU,QQQ)

Tortoise vs. Hare, Avionic Version (BA,NOC,HYG,BIDU,QQQ)   Where in the world will it end?   General Jenny Tull, the first female, four-star officer in the U.S. armed services, yesterday announced procurements totaling $82 million for the purpose of ‘gender nullification initiatives’ and ‘tactical androgen support ops’. Although our efforts to contact the General’s office have yet to meet with a reply, our curiosity as to what those two items would look like in some of the Mrs.’ choicest lingerie have set our hearts absolutely a’flutter!   And further, we ask: is there a chance that Jenny Tull’s own tacticals have ever been manacled? Her cuticles ridiculed?  Or her clavicles or mandibles manhandled?   Haha!   Moreover, what, pray tell, turned the general into such an irascible Hannibal, so fanatically concerned with the exclusively bacchanal?   Call us puritanical, but when the goal of armies turns from killing the enemy into a vehicle for social engineering, all hope of victory is lost.   The Death of War   Thankfully, there are still those who believe that wars have to be won, and most of them walk the corridors of the corporate weapons industry.   We’ll return in a moment to discuss…

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From Rio to Shanghai! (FXI,NOC,AAPL?)

From Rio to Shanghai! (FXI,NOC,AAPL?)   It’s always surprising to us just how much dissonance can exist between the news on a stock or sector, on the one hand, and the actual price moves for the security, on the other.   It can be outrageous.   So, for example, when you see the financial press go to town on Brazil or Twitter or the auto industry, it behooves you as a clever investor to take a look under the hood, kick the tires and offer a good long gaze at the nearest Brazilian Twitters you can find.   For the results are bound to surprise. We bring this to your attention because the current sound and fury surrounding the financial picture in China is one of awesome dread.  The Chinese banking system, you’ll read, is weak in the face of both credit and asset bubbles; the recent investment downgrade by Moody’s will gut the desire for Chinese securities; the rejigging of the currency peg – a move that took everyone by surprise – should scare the beJesuits out of you; the commodities glut… in fact, nearly every reason to avoid, flee, short or outright assassinate your Shanghai investments, is now…

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Financial Drone Strike! (NOC,DBC,JCP,LOW,SLV,UUP)

There’s been a great deal of press lately regarding a handful of tech companies and the outsized role they’ve played in goosing the market averages.   And, indeed, it’s the case that Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Facebook and Apple have all been climbing recently, and contributed in great measure to the success of the NASDAQ, not to mention the S&P 500 in the last fortnight.   But a look at breadth figures for the rest of the big caps shows that the big five are not alone; nearly all the index components have been pulling their weight. The percentage of S&P stocks trading above their 50 day moving averages, a rudimentary indicator of bullishness, climbed from 40% to nearly 60% in the last two weeks, as the market bumped up a solid 3%.   That’s as clear a sign as any that the market is not a mere five cylinder engine.  One hundred and sixty big-name, big-cap stocks also turned sharply higher in that period.   Negativity in the Noise   Be that as it may, the biggest five U.S. stocks have been a great bet a) since New Year’s, b) since the election, and c) going back a full…

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