We Are Investment Artists! (AAPL,GLD,TSLA)

We Are Investment Artists! (AAPL,GLD,TSLA) We at Normandy prefer the use of options because of the (mostly) limited liability involved in their use, as well as the wide variety of strategies and structures they afford the interested trader to employ. Nearly any price projection you might make has at least one corresponding options strategy available to profit from. In short, options are, in our view, the premiere weapon for the prudent investor in this age of increasing financial and geopolitical uncertainty. We mention this now, because we’ve clearly entered a period in which excesses in valuation and government intervention have made predicting market moves a far less quantitative operation – less scientific, if you will – and turned it more into ‘artisanry’. The new keys to investment and speculative success reside in a number of less widely-used indicators, basic technical analysis and in-depth sentiment study, all of which we at Normandy excel in. Give us an example, McAbby! A look at traders’ positioning in VIX futures is instructive in this regard. Below is a chart of traders’ speculative posture in VIX futures over the last three years. It makes clear the overwhelming shift in sentiment that occurred literally ‘overnight’ in…

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Sit Down and Prepare for an Explosive Bull Movement! (QQQ,TSLA)

Sit Down and Prepare for an Explosive Bull Movement! (QQQ,TSLA) In last week’s Options Trader Elite, fellow scribbler Matt McAbby discussed the current state of the commodities and left you with a trade on the entire complex using DBC as the underlying. His discussion included closer looks at oil and gold, among other things, and suggested a breakout in either or both was just a matter of time. Today, we want to revisit his work and take a slightly different tack with regard to crude oil in particular, because we believe there could be a lead-laden shotgun trade for anyone who points his investment weapon in the right direction. So, to review… Geopolitics We’re sitting at what appears to be the beginning of a serious regional conflict in Syria, one that may eventually pull in some of the world’s largest armies, at least five of which possess nuclear armaments. Predictably, the latest round of exploding projectiles in the Middle East has also stoked the energy complex, with Brent Crude breaking to a new 40 month high just last week. And that, as McAbby suggested, will likely spur a great deal of technical trading in the weeks ahead. And yet a…

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She Thought She Was Going to The Dentist… (TSLA,QQQ)

She Thought She Was Going to The Dentist… (TSLA,QQQ) When I was young I had a friend whose father used to repeat the same lesson to him over and over again. His dad was an Englishman, so it helps to hear his words with that distinct pompous accent that accompanies so many who hail from the Land of the Rose. He used to say: The only ship you should never embark upon is a partnership. Can’t tell you how many times I heard that. As it turns out, we parted ways when I was 11 or 12, but my buddy (we’ll call him Denny) grew up to be a professional thief. I read about him several times thereafter in the papers, always with pictures on his way into or emerging from a courthouse, accused of every possible white collar deceit you can imagine. Did seven or eight years – twice – last I heard. The good news is Denny never had any accomplices, from what I understand. Respected his father, old Denny, after all. There’s something to be said for that. Let’s go 50-50! We got to thinking about our old comrade because the market today is splitsville, schizo-undecided, with…

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The Balsa Wood Festival (TSLA,GFI,AU)

The Balsa Wood Festival (TSLA,GFI,AU) When I was a kid, it was all the rage to build balsa wood gliders and send them sailing down the 70 foot drop at Dead Man’s Hill in Eglinton Park. The things never lasted more than four or five trips; they were balsa wood, after all. But watching them soar was a thrill. And if the winds were just so, and the balance and design were good, those contraptions were for us an awe and a wonder on par with the ten plagues. The crash-ups were equally exquisite. Those golden moments of silence when my buddies and I waited for our aircraft to finally touch down were the most breathtaking of my entire childhood. The anticipation. The hope. The subsequent speedy and dangerous descent to ascertain the damage, and the knee-slapping, ground-roll guffaws that followed. Childhood Nirvana… Funny. Now, as an adult, I feel I’m reliving those days watching the NASDAQ. There have yet to be any wild crashes – at least not among the leaders – though some appear to be headed in that direction. Could be that shortly we’ll be grabbing our popcorn and melting a stick of butter. Glider Death Among…

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The Snowball Manifesto (XLE,AAPL,TSLA)

The Snowball Manifesto (XLE,AAPL,TSLA)   Here at Normandy we believe that the dichotomy purported to exist between the so-called ‘Globalists’ and those who consider themselves part of the “Liberty Movement’, is a false one.   Yes, there are those – from both the right and left of the political spectrum – who believe that economic and political power should be concentrated in the hands of a few elite superiors.  We call them ‘Globalists’.  And their motto is ‘Trust your leaders’.   Then there are those who believe that power should be decentralized to the greatest degree possible, even at the expense of many long-established, well-run Washington-based entities that serve the common weal and boast a proven record of success.  These are the ‘Liberty’ contingent, for whom the individual represents the greatest possible value, and the collective, except in rare instances, must take a back seat.   But we at Normandy reject the polarizing nature of the dichotomy, and the acrimony and ill-will it creates.   For we are neither Libertine nor Globalist.   No, rather, we consider ourselves proud Snowballists.  And we stand firmly and unrepentant on our icy foundations, ready to strike hard with freshly fallen, moist packing snow…

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Breaking Bulletin Bids Buyers Beware! (GWW,TYL,AOBC,FB,TSLA)

Breaking Bulletin Bids Buyers Beware! (GWW,TYL,AOBC,FB,TSLA)   This just in – earlier this week, one of our key indicators flashed a supernova warning.  It was our own ‘Volatility Compression’ marker, which we discussed at length only six weeks back in our Buy Everything Now! missive, a letter we’re sure you’ll agree both enthralled and captivated. In any event, the VIX (along with two other, equally important market readings) offered us what might best be described as a high probability pullback signal.   No, we’re not headed for the woodshed, and we’re not placing calls to next of kin.  But we are issuing a fitting warning that we could experience a short, sharp pullback (at least) in the weeks ahead in light of the compressed VIX reads over the last few days.   Wait!  Did you say READS, Plural?   That’s right.  On Monday, the VIX compression reading came in at 0.37.  Then, again, yesterday, we saw a second squished reading at just 0.46!  Two this close is something we’ve yet to see in nearly a quarter century of experience in this game, and we’re not taking it lightly.   Have a gander – The red arrows show two days with…

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Buy Me a Gift! (TSLA,XLK,FAS)

Buy Me a Gift! (TSLA,XLK,FAS)   There’s nothing more disheartening than having to remind someone it’s your birthday.  Not just anyone, of course, but someone who’s supposed to know and has forgotten.   Why?  Because it puts you in the awkward position of making someone else feel awkward for the purpose of getting something from them. Face it: there are those who will certainly forget, those who you HOPE won’t forget, and those whom you can’t under any circumstances LET forget, because THEY can’t afford to – they’ll feel worse than you if they’re not reminded.   And there the trouble begins…   Here at Normandy – birthday or no – we feel it’s our responsibility to point out the uncomfortable truths that are often overlooked or intentionally ignored by the rest of the newsletter cadre, and to deliver them to your inbox in an upbeat manner, such that you don’t turn us off – heaven forfend! – and go looking elsewhere for more ‘cheerful’ news.   No, no, we say.  The truth may hurt, but a dose of humor certainly helps the medicine go down, as archangel Julie Andrews once put it. The uncomfortable truth that we want to…

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California Here I Come! (TSLA)

California Here I Come! (TSLA)   There’s an old saying that goes, “Change your address, change your luck.”   And for most of those who took up the call and ‘went west’ back in the day, those words held true enough.   As the Midwest and California opened up and were populated by newcomers eager to turn over a new leaf, so, too, were many new fortunes made.   And there’s no reason it should be any different today – even though the ‘frontier’ no longer exists per se.   There’s still plenty of life to bring to many a forgotten and less trodden path.   A New, Old Path   We’ve written in this space extensively about the advantages of returning to an agrarian lifestyle, particularly in the face of an upcoming financial crisis that will bury completely all our quaint notions of credit cards and bank machines and even coins and paper currency, items that may not be with us even a decade from today, and most certainly not in our grandchildren’s time – at least not as they are at present.   That’s why we’ve repeatedly returned over the years to our Four G’s investment hypothesis (Guns,…

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Normandy Brass Indicted for Deep Sea Slave Ring! (NVDA,TSLA,GDX)

We’re going to lead off today with a recap of our year-end predictions from Stock Market Superhero, our annual foray into the dark arts, in which we dipped our Ouija boards and crystal balls into our witchy Normandean tea leaves to offer you our best thinking on the last half of the year.   In this installment of Wall Street Elite we report on just how accurate those predictions were.   And we lead off with the Dow.   Our prediction for the grand-daddy of all indexes was…   On the Last Day of 2016, you can expect to see the Dow Jones Industrial Average to be cruising in the vicinity of 20,000, though we’re still not certain if that’ll be on its way up or down.  From today’s levels that’s a gain of some nine percent.   And ladies and gentlemen, that’s precisely what happened.  The Dow closed last Friday at 19,762, a mere 1.19% below our keenly calculated prediction, making us, if not Kings of the World and Masters of the Galaxy, at least worthy of your continued servitude. The NASDAQ Composite, we suggested, would be trading at 5650.   As it turns out the COMP closed Friday…

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Hey, Gold Bug! Welcome to the Inferno! (GLD,TSLA,GS,XLF,FB)

It didn’t take long, that’s for sure.   Once the mighty Trump landed in the White House, it was time for Quinn the Eskimo and his merry band of goldphiles to turn-tail and run.   Apparently.   And while we may see a bounce here in the precious metals near-term, the fires of hell are only now being stoked for gold lovers – may they endure their agony gracefully.   Either that, of course, or they can sell. We had a friend several years ago who refused to heed our warning about an imminent selloff in the PMs.  He had just loaded up on silver as the metal was topping, and we warned him strenuously against the move.  Every sign and symbol associated with that metal was screaming ‘overbought’ at that hour, but this fella thought he knew better.  He piled his own life savings on top his father’s, which he was also managing, and spoke about the fortunes he was about to make.   After that, we spoke less.  He was embarrassed, and we understood.  When we did meet, he would ask our opinion, whether we thought the metal had bottomed, or if it was close to bottoming. We…

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